Expecting a Bitcoin rocket launch after the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut this week? You can stop holding your breath. Analysts are pouring cold water on that fantasy. Bitcoin, currently hovering around a stubbornly familiar $90,000, probably won’t budge much. Why? Because the market’s already done the math. The Fed’s widely anticipated 0.25% rate slash is, as they say, “priced in.”
This isn’t some groundbreaking revelation. When everyone and their grandma expects an event, traders move on it *before* it happens. That’s exactly what’s played out here. The CME FedWatch tool puts the probability of a cut at a staggering 87%, with Polymarket bettors pushing it even higher to 95%. When a decision is that certain, its impact is largely absorbed into asset prices well in advance. So, while the Fed meeting might make headlines, don’t expect it to send Bitcoin to the moon.
The $90K Treadmill: A Waiting Game
Nansen’s principal research analyst, Aurelie Barthere, sums it up bluntly: “Following the FOMC meeting, I expect Bitcoin to hover around this level without a decisive break.” All eyes are on that $91,000 resistance level, a psychological barrier that Bitcoin just can’t seem to punch through. The past week’s price action has been a snooze fest — flat, stagnant, mirroring the broader uncertainty gripping global markets. Investors are in a holding pattern, bracing for a Fed meeting that’s setting the macroeconomic stage for 2026, not just next week.
It’s not just spot prices either. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are seeing red. Monday alone saw another $89 million in outflows, bringing December’s total losses to a cool $177 million, according to DefiLlama. This isn’t the kind of momentum that sparks a bull run. Couple that with US stock futures trading flat, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures stalling, and you’ve got a picture of widespread investor caution. No one’s betting big right now.
But why is the Fed so hesitant to make bigger moves, even with such high expectations for a cut? Barthere points to a classic government problem: stale data. “With a two-month lag in labour-market data, the Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance,” she explained. They’re essentially driving with a rearview mirror, making decisions based on economic conditions that are already two months old. That kind of uncertainty breeds caution, not bold monetary policy shifts.
Enter 2026: The Political Wildcard
So, if this week’s Fed meeting is a wash for significant price action, where should we be looking? Fast forward to early 2026. This is where things get interesting, and potentially, far more volatile. The big kahuna? A potential new Fed Chair.
Aurelie Barthere and Amberdata’s director of derivatives, Greg Magadini, are both eyeing a significant shake-up. Current speculation centers on US President Donald Trump, should he win re-election, nominating Kevin Hassett, his former National Economic Council chief, to take over from Jerome Powell. “It’s notable that this decision, originally expected this year, has been delayed,” Barthere noted, adding to the intrigue.
Magadini confirms the timeline: “President Donald Trump is expected to announce his pick in early 2026.” Following Senate approval, the new chair would take the reins in May 2026, after Powell steps down. This isn’t just a routine change; it’s a potential seismic shift in monetary policy and, consequently, market sentiment.
Why a Politically Aligned Fed Chair Matters
Hassett isn’t just any economist. He’s one of the few contenders who has vocally, even zealously, pushed for faster and more aggressive interest rate cuts. This aligns perfectly with Trump’s long-standing demands. If Hassett becomes Fed chair, markets will be dealing with a central bank boss more politically aligned with a president than any in modern history. This is unprecedented territory.
Historically, lower interest rates act like rocket fuel for “risk-on” assets – and crypto is the ultimate risk-on play. When rates are low, the appeal of “risk-free” investments like bonds diminishes. Why settle for meager returns when you can chase potentially massive gains in riskier, higher-growth sectors? This capital then flows into assets like Bitcoin, driving up prices. A Fed chair actively pushing for deeper, faster cuts could create a significantly more bullish environment for crypto.
But it’s not a done deal. This is still speculation, albeit informed speculation from seasoned analysts. The road to 2026 is long, filled with political twists, economic turns, and plenty of market FUD. What’s clear is that the immediate future for Bitcoin, post-Fed meeting, looks pretty boring. The real fireworks, if they happen at all, might just be two years down the line, sparked not by economic data, but by political maneuvering at the highest levels.
So, keep your powder dry. The $90,000 mark isn’t going anywhere fast. But start looking towards 2026. That’s when the real game of monetary policy roulette begins.
