The crypto market loves a good floor until the floor falls through. Right now, Dogecoin (DOGE) is testing the patience of every retail trader who still believes in the power of the Shiba Inu. While Bitcoin flirted with six figures and Solana tried to reclaim its former glory, the original meme coin spent much of late 2024 grinding against a wall of indifference. Now, a battle line is being drawn at the $0.11 to $0.12 mark, sparking a heated debate between those hunting for a generational bottom and those who think the DOGE chart is simply dead weight.
The Line in the Sand: Matt Hughes’ Bull Case
Crypto analyst Matt Hughes, known in the trenches as “The Great Mattsby,” recently threw a gauntlet down on X. He identified the $0.11–$0.12 zone as an “incredible” risk/reward opportunity. His thesis isn’t just based on a gut feeling; it’s built on a weekly DOGE/USDT chart that looks more like a geometry project than a trading screen. Hughes uses a linear-scale Gann Square—a technical tool that seeks harmony between price and time—to argue that DOGE is hitting a massive confluence of support.
In plain English: price is hitting two major support levels at once. First, there is the horizontal floor where DOGE based out during the brutal 2022–2023 bear market. Second, there is a rising diagonal trendline that has acted as the backbone of the asset’s long-term structure. When a horizontal support meets a rising trendline, traders call it confluence. It’s the technical equivalent of a double-reinforced concrete floor. If you buy here, your “invalidation point” is clear: if DOGE closes a week decisively below $0.10, the trade is dead, and it’s time to exit. That tight risk is what makes the setup attractive to the “value” hunters of the crypto world.
The Counter-Argument: Is DOGE a ‘Bad Chart’?
Not everyone is buying the dip. Veteran trader Cheds Trading, known for a more clinical approach to price action, offered a blunt reality check. “Prob better off picking a good chart than throwing money at a bad one,” he countered. This gets to the heart of the “Opportunity Cost” problem in crypto. Just because an asset is at support doesn’t mean it’s going to pump. In a market where capital is constantly rotating into the next shiny object—whether it’s AI tokens, new-age L1s, or the latest narrative on Base—parking liquidity in a stagnant DOGE chart can feel like a prison sentence.
DOGE has a habit of “boring” traders to death before it finally moves. We saw this during the 2020 consolidation phase before the Elon Musk-fueled mania of 2021 sent it to $0.73. The risk isn’t just that the price goes down; it’s that the price does nothing for six months while the rest of the market pulls a 5x. Cheds’ skepticism reflects a momentum-first mindset: why fight for pennies on a laggard when you can ride the trend on a leader?
Market Memory: The 2021 Ghost and the ‘Depression’ Phase
To understand why this $0.11 level matters, we have to look back. Those of us who survived the 2017 ICO bust and the 2022 FTX collapse know that meme coins are sentiment barometers. When DOGE is flatlining, it usually means retail conviction is in the gutter. Hughes pointed to the “Wall Street Cheat Sheet”—a famous infographic of market cycles—suggesting we are currently in the “depression” or “disbelief” phase for altcoins. This is the part of the cycle where everyone has emotionally given up, liquidity is thin, and the “experts” are calling everything a scam.
Historically, this is exactly where the biggest rotations are born. As analyst Merlijn pointed out in the same discussion, rotations happen “quietly and uncomfortably.” They start when Bitcoin looks weak or stable and everyone has moved their money back into stables or top-cap coins. If DOGE holds this $0.11–$0.12 zone, it sets the stage for a run back toward $0.23 or even $0.35. But getting there requires a shift in the macro wind—specifically, a return of the “dumb money” retail crowd that treats DOGE as a gateway drug to the rest of the ecosystem.
The Technical Breakdown: Gann Squares and Macro Dreams
For the uninitiated, Hughes’ use of the Gann Square isn’t just about drawing lines. It’s an attempt to map out the “natural” rhythm of the market. On a linear scale, these diagonals represent the rate of change DOGE needs to maintain to stay in a long-term bull structure. Currently, DOGE is sitting right at the intersection of these diagonal guides and the $0.1236 mark. If the market honors this geometry, the next targets are clear shelves at $0.46 and $0.60.
However, Hughes’ macro outlook comes with a heavy dose of “Moonboy” hyperbole that should make any seasoned trader squint. Predicting Bitcoin at $500k and DOGE “mooning harder than ever” by 2026 because “memes became money” is the kind of talk that preceded the 2021 crash. While the technical setup at $0.11 is objectively interesting, the narrative surrounding it is dangerously close to the “fiat dreams” rhetoric that usually ends in tears for latecomers.
Risk Assessment: The Bear Case
Let’s be real: Dogecoin has no “utility” in the traditional sense. It lives and dies by attention. If the attention economy moves permanently toward newer, faster meme-launchers like Pump.fun or Solana-based tokens, DOGE could become a relic of a previous cycle—the Litecoin of meme coins. The primary risks for this trade include:
- The $0.10 Trapdoor: If DOGE fails to hold the Gann support, the next stop isn’t $0.09; it’s likely the $0.05–$0.07 range. That’s a 50% haircut from current levels.
- Bitcoin Dominance: If Bitcoin decides to suck all the oxygen out of the room on its way to new highs, altcoins like DOGE will continue to bleed on their BTC pairs, even if they stay flat in USD terms.
- Regulatory Overhang: While the SEC has bigger fish to fry, any broad crackdown on “unregistered securities” or meme-heavy exchanges could disproportionately hit the high-liquidity meme coins.
The bottom line? If you’re a technical trader, the $0.11–$0.12 zone is a textbook entry with a clear exit strategy. But if you’re buying because you think “the memes are becoming money,” you might want to check your bias. This isn’t 2021, and the market doesn’t owe anyone a moon mission. Use the levels, respect the stop-loss, and remember that in crypto, the floor is only as solid as the next liquidation candle.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; never invest more than you can afford to lose.
