The Year of Winning Nobody Wants to Pay For
Bitcoin is staring down the barrel of a New Year’s Eve disaster. After a year that saw the industry check off every item on its institutional wish list—spot ETFs, pro-crypto policy shifts, and a massive wave of corporate adoption—the “King of Crypto” is on the verge of printing a red yearly candle. It is a sobering, almost insulting setup for a market that spent most of 2025 high on its own supply of bullish headlines.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $87,748. To finish 2025 in the green, it needs to claw its way back to a daily close above $93,389. That’s a 6.3% drop year-to-date and an 8.25% slide year-over-year. For those of us who survived the 2017 ICO craze and the 2022 FTX implosion, this feels like a familiar flavor of psychological warfare: the market is exhausted, even as the fundamentals look better than ever. We’ve gone from “to the moon” to “tired of winning,” as Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, aptly put it.
The Mechanical Pin: Why $90,000 Feels Like a Ceiling
If you’ve been watching the charts, you’ve noticed the agonizing sideways grind. Bitcoin has spent the better part of a month pinned between $85,000 and $90,000, refusing to capitalize on any positive news. According to Thorn, this isn’t necessarily a lack of faith; it’s mechanical. We are currently trapped in a “dealer gamma” cage.
In the options market, market makers (dealers) have to hedge their positions to remain delta-neutral. When there is a high concentration of open interest at specific strike prices—like the $85k and $90k levels—these dealers end up buying the dips and selling the rips to stay balanced. This effectively dampens volatility, keeping the price stuck in a narrow range regardless of the macro environment. The good news? A massive month-end options expiry is coming. This “clearing of the deck” could finally snap the rubber band, though there’s no guarantee it snaps upward.
Historically, this mirrors the summer of 2023, where Bitcoin sat in a coma for months while the underlying infrastructure for ETFs was being built. The difference now is that the infrastructure is here, but the liquidity is being sucked out by other players.
The Call is Coming from Inside the House
One of the most jarring takeaways from Galaxy’s recent data is who, exactly, is doing the selling. For years, the narrative was that “paper-handed” retail investors would flee at the first sign of trouble while “diamond-handed” OGs would hold the line. In 2025, that script flipped.
Thorn points out that coins held by long-term holders (LTHs) have declined more sharply since July 2025 than at any point since the 2017 bull run. The “OGs” are distributing their coins to the new brokerage-led demand. Essentially, the pioneers who bought BTC at $1,000, $10,000, or even $30,000 are using this year’s liquidity to exit or rebalance. They are selling into the “Wall Street” demand provided by BlackRock and Fidelity.
While this distribution is painful for short-term price action, it’s a sign of a maturing market. We are seeing a massive lift in the “realized price”—the average price at which all BTC last moved—which now sits above $56,000. The network’s aggregate principal is rising, but we have to endure the “inside the house” selling before we can see the next leg up.
The ETF Paradox and the AI Distraction
The resilience of the US Bitcoin ETFs is perhaps the only thing keeping bulls from a total meltdown. Despite Bitcoin falling 36% from its October 6 all-time high of $125,296, ETF cumulative inflows are only down 9% from their peak. Consider this: Thorn estimates that 60% of ETF inflows are currently “underwater”—meaning they bought at prices higher than where we are today. In previous cycles, a 30%+ drawdown would have sent retail fleeing for the exits. This time, the institutional crowd is holding firm, likely because BTC is being treated as a portfolio diversifier rather than a speculative lottery ticket.
However, Bitcoin isn’t the only game in town anymore. In 2021, crypto was the sole outlet for “growth” mania. In 2025, Bitcoin has had to fight for oxygen against:
- The “Mag 7”: Big Tech’s dominance has made it hard for portfolio managers to justify moving out of Nvidia or Apple into a volatile crypto asset.
- The AI Boom: Capital that previously flowed into Web3 “moonshots” is now chasing hyperscalers and LLM infrastructure.
- Gold: The “Boomer Rock” has had a stellar year, proving that the demand for non-dollar hedges is real, but fragmented.
Risk Assessment: The 2026 Chaos Factor
Looking ahead, Galaxy Digital is calling 2026 “too chaotic to predict.” That should be a red flag for anyone looking for a “guaranteed” path to $100k. While Thorn maintains a long-term target of $250,000 by late 2027, the near-term options market tells a story of extreme uncertainty. Currently, the market is pricing in roughly equal odds that Bitcoin could be at $70,000 or $130,000 by June 2026. That is a massive “volatility smile,” and for the first time, puts (bets on a price drop) are starting to become more expensive than calls.
This shift suggests Bitcoin is losing its “high-growth tech” status and behaving more like a traditional macro asset. It reacts more to interest rates and central bank debasement than to “HODL” memes. The risk here is that if the US dollar remains strong and the Fed doesn’t deliver the expected liquidity, Bitcoin could languish in the $70k-$80k range for much longer than the “moonboys” anticipate.
The ultimate goal for 2026 is for Bitcoin to firmly re-establish itself above the $100,000 psychological barrier. Until then, we are in a transition phase. The “monetary debasement” hedge narrative is still the long-term play, but for now, the market is simply too busy digesting the massive gains—and the massive selling—of the last twelve months. This isn’t financial advice; it’s a reminder that even in a banner year, the market has a way of making you earn every Satoshi.
